OF THE many unpleasant legacies left by the economic crisis the mountain of sovereign debt may prove hardest to erode. Across the rich world, debt levels approaching 90% of GDP are now common. Indebted governments face an unenviable menu of options. Growing their way out of trouble will prove difficult as economies deleverage. Austerity, a second and unappetising choice, can easily choke recovery. Defaults are seen as a last resort. Politicians are searching for an easier way.
There is another model. Following the second world war many countries reduced debt quickly without messy defaults or painful austerity. British debt declined from 216% of GDP in 1945 to 138% ten years later, for example. In the five years to 2016, by contrast, British debt as a proportion of GDP is expected to drop by just three percentage points despite a harsh austerity programme. Why was it so much easier to cut debt in the immediate aftermath of the war?
Inflation helped. Between 1945 and 1980 negative real interest rates ate away at government debt. Savers deposited money in banks which lent to governments at interest rates below the level of inflation. The government then repaid savers with money that bought less than the amount originally lent. Savers took a real, inflation-adjusted loss, which corresponded to an improvement in the government’s balance-sheet. The mystery is why savers accepted crummy returns over long periods.
Related topics
- Bond markets
- Government bonds
- China
- United States
- Government and politics
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